• Derek Ryan

2018 Primary Election - Final Report


Ryan Data & Research has finally been able to compile the list of everyone who voted in the 2018 Republican or Democratic Primary elections in all 254 Texas counties. Using this information (and other available information), Ryan Data & Research was able to determine who participated in the primaries. New Primary Voters Nearly 27.0% of the people who voted in the 2018 Democratic Primary had not voted in the previous four primary elections. In the 2018 Republican Primary, these people made up 14.1% of the turnout. A large portion of primary voters this year were people who were already voting in General Elections, so as many have already cautioned, please take that into consideration when trying to make predictions about November. The actual growth of new voters (those with no primary or general election history), is only slightly higher than it was in 2014. People who had not voted in a previous general or primary election (2010-2016) only made up 5.1% of the votes cast in the 2018 Democratic Primary. In 2014, that percentage was 4.3%. For Republicans, the percentage was 2.7% in both 2018 and 2014. New Gubernatorial Election Year Voters Democrats were able to get more voters who had previously only voted in presidential election years to show up to vote in an gubernatorial election year. Democrats have a +48,495 advantage over the Republicans in this category. In a statewide race, this would likely only equate to a 1-2% bump for a Democrat, but in a close district or local race, they could have an impact. Enthusiam Level By looking at who showed up to vote in the primary election, we might be able to see what the enthusiam level is for each party's base. Please note, there are always additional factors which impact turnout levels (example: there were no real competitive races at the top of the Republican ticket). Of Democrats who had voted in all four of the previous four Democratic Primaries (2010-2016), 80.7% showed up to vote in 2018. Of Republicans who had voted in all four of the previous four Republican Primaries, 76.4% showed up to vote this year. The difference is slightly more significant in 2x and 3x primary voters, as seen below. The Age Issue As most know, there is a lack of youth participation in the electoral process. In the primary election process, the issue is even more apparent. The average age of a Democratic Primary voter was 54.5 years old. In the Republican Primary, the average was 60.1 years old. Voters in their 60s made up the largest percentage of voters in both party primaries.


The full report is available here.


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