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  • Derek Ryan

2018 General Election - Early Voting Analysis

Updated: Mar 5, 2019

Happy Election Eve! Several people have asked what statewide voter turnout will be when all is said and done. At the moment. While we are still calculating various possible scenarios, it is extremely likely that turnout in Texas will exceed 8 million people voting (Election Day + early combined). That would be 52.2% turnout which would be higher than any previous mid-term, but just short of presidential election percentages. This projection is based on how the top 15 counties voted during early voting, what their likely Election Day numbers will look like, and then assumes that these counties will make up 65% of all votes cast in the election. A few stats on who voted early:

-Voters with previous Republican Primary election history now hold a +147,000 vote advantage over voters with previous Democratic Primary election history. Non-primary voters hold a +614,000 vote advantage over Republican Primary voters.

-69.5% of voters who most recently voted in a Republican Primary ended up voting early, while 71.3% of voters who most recently voted in a Democratic Primary voted early.

-Only 36.3% of previous General Election voters with no primary history voted early.

-Voters under the age of 30 made up 12.3% of all votes cast during early voting.

-18.4% of people who voted early this year waited until Election Day to vote in 2014. The full report is available here.

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As we have done in the past, Ryan Data & Research will begin publishing reports on who votes early in Texas' largest counties. The reports will begin on Tuesday and will continue for the entirety of t

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