Ryan Data & Research Accurately Predicts Menéndez Victory
Updated: Mar 5, 2019
Yesterday, voters in Senate District 26 cast a ballot to determine who would represent them in the Texas Senate. The two candidates were José Menéndez (D) and Trey Martinez Fischer (D). While some predicted a close race between the two candidates, based on data from early voting, Ryan Data & Research predicted a large victory for Menéndez.
With some help from Mike Baselice, survey data showed that Republican Primary voters would likely vote 80-20 in Menéndez's favor. According to Ryan Data & Research's analysis of early voting data, 38.3% of the votes cast were from voters with Republican Primary history.
Because of this advantage, that meant in order for Menéndez to win early voting, he could receive as little as 25% of Democrat Primary voters and still have a chance at carrying early voting.
Based on models created by Ryan Data & Research, we predicted that Menéndez would receive around 8,257 votes during early voting. If Menéndez achieved this total, he would win early voting 61% to 39%.
Menéndez ended up receiving slightly below that (8,107) and won early voting 60% to 40%.